Backtesting Frameworks

Build robust, production-grade backtesting systems that avoid common pitfalls and produce reliable strategy performance estimates.

When to Use This Skill

Developing trading strategy backtests
Building backtesting infrastructure
Validating strategy performance
Avoiding common backtesting biases
Implementing walk-forward analysis
Comparing strategy alternatives

Core Concepts

1. Backtesting Biases

Bias	Description	Mitigation
Look-ahead	Using future information	Point-in-time data
Survivorship	Only testing on survivors	Use delisted securities
Overfitting	Curve-fitting to history	Out-of-sample testing
Selection	Cherry-picking strategies	Pre-registration
Transaction	Ignoring trading costs	Realistic cost models

2. Proper Backtest Structure

text

Historical Data
      │
      ▼
┌─────────────────────────────────────────┐
│              Training Set               │
│  (Strategy Development & Optimization)  │
└─────────────────────────────────────────┘
      │
      ▼
┌─────────────────────────────────────────┐
│             Validation Set              │
│  (Parameter Selection, No Peeking)      │
└─────────────────────────────────────────┘
      │
      ▼
┌─────────────────────────────────────────┐
│               Test Set                  │
│  (Final Performance Evaluation)         │
└─────────────────────────────────────────┘

3. Walk-Forward Analysis

text

Window 1: [Train──────][Test]
Window 2:     [Train──────][Test]
Window 3:         [Train──────][Test]
Window 4:             [Train──────][Test]
                                     ─────▶ Time

Detailed worked examples and patterns

Detailed sections (starting with ## Implementation Patterns) live in references/details.md. Read that file when the navigation summary above is insufficient.

Best Practices

Do's

Use point-in-time data - Avoid look-ahead bias
Include transaction costs - Realistic estimates
Test out-of-sample - Always reserve data
Use walk-forward - Not just train/test
Monte Carlo analysis - Understand uncertainty

Don'ts

Don't overfit - Limit parameters
Don't ignore survivorship - Include delisted
Don't use adjusted data carelessly - Understand adjustments
Don't optimize on full history - Reserve test set
Don't ignore capacity - Market impact matters